A series of megatrends is creating new challenges and opportunities for Southern California, and directly impacting how one of the most vital population and economic centers in the United States prepares for its future, according to Connect SoCal, a long-term transportation and sustainability plan recently released in draft form.
The 2020-2045 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy, produced by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), identifies $638.6 billion in mobility, land-use and air-quality improvements for the six-county region.
SCAG, the nation’s largest metropolitan planning organization, spent four years developing the draft plan, which is now available for public review. Among the major conclusions: Unprecedented demographic, social and economic changes are transforming how we live and work, and forcing more creative and resourceful solutions to the challenges before us.
“Southern California has always been a uniquely innovative and adaptive region, but the level of change we’re experiencing now is unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Bill Jahn, President of SCAG. “For individual cities and the region as a whole, understanding how these transformative forces are likely to play out will better prepare us to meet the challenges and create new opportunities.”
Among the megatrends highlighted in Connect SoCal:
- The population of Southern California will continue to grow at a faster pace than the nation as a whole during the next quarter century, though declining fertility rates and high housing costs will cut our expansion rates almost in half – from 0.85% per year in 2020 to 0.45% per year in 2045. At the end of that 25-year period, the six-county region’s population is expected to stand at 22.5 million.
- The six-county SCAG region is losing more people to other states or regions than it is gaining – an average net loss per year of 91,000. While other population trends – including foreign immigration – have helped mitigate those losses, the impact on the labor market and business growth is a significant concern.
- A rapidly aging population will put stresses on healthcare, social security and pensions. The youngest Baby Boomers turn 55 this year, and by 2045, the region’s median age is expected to approach 40 (39.7). By comparison, the region’s median age was 32.3 in 2000.
- While net foreign migration to Southern California has decreased from its highs in the early 1990s, the region remains one of the nation’s more important immigrant gateways, ranking behind only Miami and San Jose in its share of foreign-born population. While roughly half of the region’s foreign-born population is originally from Latin America, a growing share of newly-arrived immigrants – now nearly 60% – are from Asian countries.
- Compared to the total population, immigrants are generally young or working age, which increases their importance to the regional economy. There are also clear-cut implications for transportation: New immigrants are more likely to take transit, ride in carpools and utilize alternative forms of transportation.
- The middle class is shrinking measurably throughout the region as inflation-adjusted median household incomes fall to their lowest level since 1989.
- While emerging technologies and innovations are creating new opportunities for businesses, they’ve impacted the labor market, fostering a shift away from full-time, long-term, stable jobs. By 2045, employment categories facing the highest likelihood of automation include construction, transportation, food preparation, sales, social services and office support. Today, those sectors employ more than 3 million people in the region.
- Developing regional strategies that preserve Southern California’s role as a global trade gateway is critically important to our region’s economy. Roughly one-third of all jobs and economic activity in the six counties are directly or indirectly reliant on goods movement.
- The worsening housing crisis presents significant economic, mobility and environmental consequences for the region as a whole, by making it harder for businesses to compete for employees and forcing more and more workers to move to more affordable communities that are often greater distances from their jobs.
“Understanding the landscape is critically important as we imagine the future of our vibrant region. The demographic and economic shifts we’re seeing will impact planning and policy considerations and our ability to meet air-quality targets among many goals, but ultimately how we enhance the quality of the life of our entire region,” said Kome Ajise, SCAG Executive Director.
The Connect SoCal draft is now available for public review and input. A final version of the plan is expected to be presented to SCAG’s Regional Council for approval in early 2020.
For more on Connect SoCal, visit www.connectsocal.org.
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